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Coffee and cocoa were being grown in plantations in South America and there was great conflict about whether France or Holland or England would be able to control the trade in these luxury items. You can still go visit it. But what this picture shows is a huge crowd of people, all of them trading stock certificates, and people leaning out the windows calling to each other, and a picture of John Law, who was the person that had this idea for a big trading company to explore and colonize the whole territory of Louisiana in North America.

Believe it or not, this is a picture of Louisiana. It shows a trade between the Native Americans and the French explorers. It goes on to describe all of these wonderful things that Louisiana must have in it, the potential for mines and farms and plantations and the wonderful weather and all sorts of stuff like that. There was a lot of propaganda about what the trade in the New World could bring you.

Looking for more insights? Sign up to get our top stories by email. Email Thanks for signing up Inbox The images have so much detail in them that you have to keep going back again and again and again and studying them. Everything is always a bubble. Yet, many of these gurus are given every opportunity to express their deeply rooted worries about the next bubble, without that bubble ever bursting.

Now, I understand that these doom and gloom stories make good headlines, but why is it that so rarely these doomsayers are held accountable for the fact that they have been dead wrong? In some cases for years on end! Learning From History Conveniently, a recently published study shows some reservation is warranted when forecasting bubbles.

Note that a halving implies that you give away all gains realized in the first year. Bubbles are just rare. Hence, only one out of every 25 boom years is followed by a crash halving in the following year. The chance of a subsequent doubling is twice that of a subsequent halving. So, instead of forecasting booms to burst you would have done much better by forecasting booms to continue. Cautiousness Now, one argument, much to the delight of doomsayers because it enables them to express their bubble worries for an extended period of time, is that bubbles take time to burst.

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